ST. CROIX — A meteorologist with the National Weather Service recently discussed with WTJX reasons the impending Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to have “above-normal activity,” which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced today.
Ernesto Morales, NWS warning coordination meteorologist in San Juan, Puerto Rico, said factors like warmer ocean temperatures, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, and the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific all contribute to the prediction for the six-month hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30.
WATCH: Ernesto Morales talks El Niño and La Niña.
“It’s gonna be a hyperactive season because the conditions are just right for systems to develop across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters,” he said.
Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, a subdivision of NOAA, predict an 85% chance of an “above-normal season,” forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, NOAA announced today. Of those storms, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including four to seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5) with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Morales said the predicted hurricane season outlook is not a decision-making tool, stressing that the decision must already be made.
“The citizens of the Virgin Islands need to understand that we’re in the hurricane alley, so we need to prepare always,” he said, suggesting residents should not rely solely on the government. “Every family or every individual in the island needs to have an emergency plan, and an emergency plan is not a ticket to go to Orlando or having a power generator.”
A plan requires identifying vulnerabilities to include medical needs as well as understanding the physical environment near residences, including proximity to hillsides and the potential for landslides or flash flooding, Morales said.
“You have to consider everything in your surroundings to make decisions,” he said. “Maybe that family plan is to evacuate and go into a shelter. So, you have to consider everything before we announce the storm is coming.”
During normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America toward Asia, according to NOAA. Cold water rises from the depths to replace that warm water in a process called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns that break these normal conditions. Episodes of El Niño and La Niña typically last nine months to a year but can sometimes last for years.
As one of the strongest El Niño ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Niña conditions, which NOAA noted in a news release issued today are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Niña tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development. Light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear in addition to minimizing ocean cooling.
“We don’t have El Niño anymore,” Morales said. “El Niño’s associated with a limited hurricane season but from last year that we had El Niño, we could see that even with wind shears associated to El Niño across the Atlantic basin, that was not enough to counteract the high temperatures we have across the ocean.”
This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms, according to NOAA.
For the upcoming hurricane season, the World Meteorological Organization has selected 21 Atlantic tropical cyclone names. They are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.
As the hurricane season quickly approaches, NOAA announced today that it will implement improvements to its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts to include offering of Spanish language text products to include all public advisories in addition to issuing tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories. NOAA highlighted new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting to include two new forecast models. NOAA also noted ongoing system upgrades to include upgraded coastal weather buoys and the planned deployment starting in June of dozens of observational underwater gliders in waters off the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and eastern U.S. coast.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.
